RBNZ Interest Rates decision today is expected remain at the current level of 1.75% as there are practically no forecasts of a change. As a matter of fact, judging from the May Official Cash Rate Statement from RBNZ, there is very little to be optimistic over, with core inflation remaining subdued, housing inflation growth stagnant, and exchange rate drop of 5% since February, all pointing to a weaker than expected outlook, thus the next likely move could be another rate cut. However, with the surprise rise in demand for commodities from New Zealand, RBNZ may very well wait a bit longer before pulling the trigger… As a matter of fact, they will probably remain in this wait-and-see state for a while unless significant improvement or deterioration were to take place with its economy…
5:00pm (NY Time) RBNZ Interest Rates Decision Forecast 1.75% Previous 1.75%
DEVIATION: 0.25% (BUY NZD 2.00% / SELL NZD 1.50%)
The Trade Plan
Current forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg agree that RBNZ is likely to keep the official rate by unchanged at this meeting; however, in the event that Governor Wheeler surprises the market either by cutting rates or hiking it by 0.25%, we should see an immediate strong volatility in the NZD which is a great opportunity to spike trade NZD.
I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: NZD/USD.
Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.
Definition:
The OCR (Official Cash Rate or RBNZ Interest Rates) influences the price of borrowing money in New Zealand and provides the Reserve Bank with a means of influencing the level of economic activity and inflation. An OCR is a fairly conventional tool by international standards.